38.
Case Study 3: Conditional Probability in Medical Diagnostics
In a certain medical testing facility, a rare disease is known to affect 2% of the population. A diagnostic test is available, which is 90% accurate for those who have the disease and 95% accurate for those who do not have the disease. A randomly chosen person is tested and found positive.
(i)
Define appropriate events for a person having the disease and the test being positive, and state the prior probability \( P(D) \). (1 Mark)
(ii)
Find the probability of a false positive result (test is positive given the person does not have the disease). (1 Mark)
(iii)
Using Bayes' Theorem, find the exact probability that the person actually has the disease given that their test result is positive. (2 Marks)
OR
Find the total probability that a randomly chosen person's test will come out positive. (2 Marks)